As India depends more on mills to start sugar production in Nov, rains may

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According to the ISMA, in the 2025–26 sugar season that ended September 30, the closing stock was about 36 lt, which provided a base for meeting domestic consumption requirements this season

By Prabhudatta Mishra

Updated - October 27, 2026 at 08:45 PM. | New Delhi

As India struggles to meet domestic sugar demand amid low stockpiles, the forecast of rain in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s largest sugarcane producer, threatens to disrupt crushing operations by delaying cane harvest.

Consequently, Maharashtra mills will likely face mounting pressure to bridge the supply gap in November. Domestic demand for the month is estimated at 23 lakh tonnes (lt) against an expected carryover stock of just 15 lt from October.

According to Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), in the 2025–26 sugar season that ended September 30, the closing stock was about 36 lt, which provided a base for meeting domestic consumption requirements this season.

It also said that already 107 sugar mills across the country, including 87 factories in Maharashtra, have commenced sugarcane crushing operations, and have produced about 4 lt of sugar, compared with around 0.6 lt a year ago.

Industry sources said that about 2 lt more sugar could be produced till the end of this month taking the total to about 6 lt in October.

Considering that the government had allocated 27 lt to mills for domestic sales during October, and assuming all quotas would be sold due to festival demand, only about 15 lt sugar could be made available for November, experts said, adding the government would have to completely depend on next month’s production to meet demand.

Import quota may aid

However, as sugar prices started rising now, there could be some lifting of imported sugar as well, which earlier could not be sold as its import costs were higher. The government had permitted two refiners 2.65 lt of imported sugar to sell in domestic market, but they could sell less than 60,000 tonnes.

Normally, the country used to have more opening stock than the estimated demand during October-November period as crushing operation picks up after first week of November. But, due to a shortage of sugar, the government has been after sugar mills to start crushing in October.

While many sugar mills in western Uttar Pradesh planned to begin crushing from October 20, it has got delayed due to rain as neither farmers could harvest nor mills were ready to buy the crop with higher moisture.

Weather forecast

According to Bharat Forecast System (BFS), developed by India Meteorological Department (IMD), many districts in western and central Uttar Pradesh are likely to receive upto 20 mm rainfall while some districts in eastern region may get upto 40 mm rainfall on October 30.

The weather bureau has predicted “isolated very heavy rainfall, fairly widespread to widespread, rainfall” over east Uttar Pradesh during October 29-30. It has also said that there may be “isolated to scattered rainfall” over west Uttar Pradesh during October 29-31.

Noted sugarcane breeder Bakshi Ram said that if there is heavy rainfall, there could be delay in crushing as in low-lying areas, particularly in eastern Uttar Pradesh, farmers have to wait for harvesting till water dries up. Besides, mills would not prefer to crush as sugar recovery will be lower, he said.

Published on October 27, 2026

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